The Polls in a Different Light

Posted: April 4, 2011 in Election, Statistics and Lies

If Canada had an American style political system, and was dominated by a two party system, what would it look like?  These two parties would be generally divided along right/left wing politics, just as is the case with the Democrat and Republican parties.

Let’s look at how the polls would likely divide if this were the case.

Today, the poll results are roughly:
Conservatives 42%
Liberals 29%
NDP 16%
Green 4%
PQ 8%

Now, if we look at left vs. right wing politics, we can combine the Liberal and NDP numbers with little question.  That yields a total of 45%.  I would assume that most of the Green Party members are left wing rather than right, but for sake of fairness let’s assign 3% to the left and 1% to the right.  The PQ traditionally do not vote Conservative, but again to be fair, let’s split their numbers down the middle and assign 4% to each side.

The result is right wing 47%, left wing 52%.  Remember, though, that we are giving the right half of the PQ vote, which is probably generous.  Remember also that this Conservative incarnation is entrenched well right of centre, and in the past years of governing have demonstrated that inclination in many of their policies.

With at least 52% of our voting population clearly on the left of the political spectrum, can we tolerate the election of a Conservative government which sees itself as being so far to the right?  Even as the polls stand today, the Conservative Party does not represent this country.


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