Canadian Voter Identity Emerges

Posted: April 27, 2011 in Current Events, Election, politics

Considering that Harper spent the first half of the election campaign whining that the election was unnecessary and that Canadians were tired of voting, it is ironic to see that this is turning into one of the most interesting and exciting elections for decades, and voter turn out may reach record highs.  Voters are taking an interest and declaring their opinions.

Considering that Harper is trying to convince us that Canada is an essentially right wing country, willing to brush aside his disrespect of parliamentary procedure and lack of transparency in government, it is interesting to see the surge of support for the NDP.  Whatever else may be true, it is clear that the left wing component of the Canadian population dominates the scene.  Not only is the left wing share of the polling results well over 55%, but 30% of that seems to be squarely in the NDP camp, putting them well left of centre.  And that doesn’t take into consideration that a large portion of the PQ supporters probably have political beliefs that fall on the left (especially if their defection to the NDP is any indication). My guess is that NDPers, who were previously voting strategically for the Liberals or have come to realize that the PQ could become a spoiler in the election,  are now voting according to ideological beliefs.  A good poll analysis can be found at Andrew Heard’s page at Simon Fraser University.

The Conservatives have been sitting pretty constantly at about 35% – 38%.  Based on that, how can they possibly justify thinking that they deserve a majority government?  Based on that, a Conservative majority would be a travesty of misrepresentation and a Conservative minority would deserve to be ousted by a left wing coalition.  That’s not an ideological statement on my part, but just a natural consequence based on the polling results and fair representation in parliament.

Be prepared.  The Conservatives will now start the scare tactics, demonizing the possible NDP / Liberal coalition and claiming that it will wreck the Canadian economy. Big business will chime in, as is to be expected when your best friend is in trouble.  And the waning separatists in Quebec will be replaced by whining separatists in the west, upset because they weren’t able to lasso the country.


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